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Technology Stocks : Broadband Wireless Access [WCII, NXLK, WCOM, satellite..]
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To: gruetz who wrote (1617)2/2/2001 12:43:03 PM
From: Bernard Levy  Read Replies (1) of 1860
 
Hi gruetz:

My take is that we are now going to form a bottom
for about 18 months to 2 years. The CLECs won't have a
V-shaped bottom like in 98. Instead, the valid companies
(MCLD, XOXO, TWTC, ALGX, WCII) will build their businesses
without much stock appreciation, but they will be able
to tap the junk bond markt. We are now in a slow period
of digestion where telecom debt holders (banks, etc.)
need now to diversify their loan portfolios away from
telcos. On the PCS front, the latest FCC auction was
rather worrisome (VZ bid like a drunken sailor on shore
leave after a year at sea), but the failure of the 3G
auction in France was a very good sign. The limited
telco $s need to go to infrastructure buildup, not to
government treasuries.

For long term investors, the year 2001 should probably
be a good period for opportunistic accumulation
of CLEC shares on pullbacks. Instead of a concentrated
position in one CLEC like XOXO or WCII, I would advocate
diversifying among the good CLECS (XOXO and WCII
are highly leveraged, and I view MCLD and TWTC as having
less risk).

Best regards,

Bernard Levy
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