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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)
CSCO 78.32-0.1%Jan 30 9:30 AM EST

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To: The Phoenix who wrote (47797)2/2/2001 12:44:00 PM
From: Tulvio Durand  Read Replies (1) of 77400
 
Network capex spending may take a year or longer to come back , according to this analyst at BlueStone Capital.

thestreet.com

Here's snippet involving Cisco

...TSC: What patterns develop when carriers have less money to spend?

Kalla: A lot depends on the economy. When the economy is good and money is flowing freely, they'll buy the best thing. But when money tightens up, they will consolidate their purchases with one supplier so they can exercise greater power and get better discounts. At this point we are likely to see a consolidation with big vendors rather than trying to support 10 or 15 niche players. Cisco (CSCO:Nasdaq - news), Nortel (NT:NYSE - news) and Lucent (LU:NYSE - news) are the big players, and the niche players would be Ciena, Sycamore, ONI (ONIS:Nasdaq - news) and Juniper (JNPR:Nasdaq - news).

TSC: As Cisco and other equipmentmakers have said repeatedly, if the economy starts to turn around in the first two quarters, the second half of the year will turn up rosy . Is that a little optimistic?

Kalla: You can't turn the spending on and off that quickly. Once you cut a project, you have to get board approval to get it going again. It takes more than two quarters for it to come back; it takes more like a year to come back. I don't think we'll see a dramatic upswing in the second half of the year if the first half is soft. Spending decision are on a six-month to two-year cycle. Once projects are gone, in my view, they're gone for a long time.


Whole interview is worthwhile reading.

Tulvio
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