Market Trend Analysis from MomentuMonkey Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Market Trend Analysis from MomentuMonkey

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To: David Lee Smith who started this subject	2/2/2001 1:16:56 PM
From: David Lee Smith	of 281

GO TO CASH! Major change signal from the MomentuMonkey Model from HOLD/SELL TO HOLD! MomentuMonkey Indicator 11:55am CST... HOLD. Target price: 1404 Spread: +3.1% Momentum: Neutral Valuation: Neutral MomentuMonkey Index: 98.36 I am currently in 100% Ultrabear Profunds (2xS&P 500 Index), however, I placed an order to go to cash at close of market today. EPS of the S&P 500 Index was revised upward today on the S&P 500 website and dividends on the S&P were also updated. Of interest, dividends declined from $15.65 to $15.63 and 2002E earnings rose from $67.5 to $68.01. The PEG ratios of the growth component of the market are starting to look much better. The MomentuMonkey model now shows the market to be slightly attractive, but not enough to commit serious funds. January was not a good month. What I learned is that January must be the month analysts revise their two year estimate in a major way. If I had been updating the earnings estimate changes as they occurred instead of at month-end, the model surely would have signaled an exit much sooner. I think this is a once per year event and expect PEG ratios to drop over the year as near-term estimates get beat and come closer to the longer term number. Also, there is a possibility that if the economy falls into a recession, those optimistic far estimates may come down. Bottom line, the MomentuMonkey Model is now giving very good signals and we should start to make better profits ahead. To see the new updated model goto momentumonkey.homestead.com

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