Web,
<< Not only can't they produce a competitive asic >>
That is a critical issue.
They have not ... yet.
And they may not.
They are attempting to qualify their 5185i at Verizon and they can't ship the WAP enabled 6185i unless they do.
Whether or not they do is going to dramatically affect their H1 and the issue has VERY high visibility amongst analysts.
Conversely the issue could potentially affect QUALCOMM.
If NOK increases CDMA market share in the US this year, and does it with its own chipset, it has to affect QUALCOMM chipset sales negatively.
I'm not placing any bets (other than the fact that I am invested in both companies), but resolution should not drag out.
<< Asia, has become NOK's biggest handset competitor >>
I suppose if you take them collectively, that is a fact. Individually, of course, it is not.
Nokia could shortly be in a position where they could become Samsungs biggest competitor in CDMA, and I believe Samsung is QUALCOMM's biggest customer.
In 2000 Nokia took market share from it's European and American competitors from above, while the Asians took it from below.
The Asians will be in GSM and W-CDMA, big time. No question.
Perhaps one of the most closely watched model releases this year will be Samsung's 4+2 GPRS phone still supposedly scheduled for this quarter.
<< NOK has enjoyed limited competition in the GSM world >>
NOK has overcome significant competition in the GSM world, and the TDMA world.
<< 20%+ margins due to the "club" patent pool. >>
Nokia does NOT maintain its 20%+ margins due to the "club" patent pool.
Take a look at the margins of the other "club" patent pool GSM producers.
<< One alternative for NOK may be for them to use their outstanding brand name and elect not to manufacture any phones. >>
That is a possibility. Today they outsource less than 10%.
Now, all that said, like the analysts, I will watch Nokia's margins closely, both on the handset side, and the network side.
Growing top line last year 54%, while maintaining 19% operating margins across the board and handset margins of 21.3% (handset sales (72%) - networks (25%) - ventures (3%)) is to me, a remarkable accomplishment.
There is going to be severe margin pressure on NOK again this quarter, and next. Same applies to QUALCOMM.
Both Irwin Jacobs & Ollila have given guidance on this. To some degree, they are in the same boat.
I'll be watching closely.
Biggest analyst fear right now, is that Nokia will go for top line and market share, at the expense of margin.
Now that is enough Nokia for today <g>. I'd seriously rather talk about QUALCOMM.
- Eric - |
