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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 659.00

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Nov 21 4:00 PM EST

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To: ayahuasca who wrote (68365)	2/2/2001 5:24:07 PM
From: Mark Adams	Read Replies (1) of 99985

I won't compare the US today to Japan- the situation is somewhat different. But you might want to check out this link, from which I've pulled a little extract. The thesis seems to be that a V recovery is less likely than we would like to believe. msdw.com But this dramatic downshift may have nothing to do with the so-called time compression of the Information Age. It turns out that a confluence of forces came together all at once: the lagged impacts of Fed tightening from mid-1999 to mid-2000; an energy shock; a negative wealth effect; higher corporate borrowing costs; and an earnings shock. This is very much consistent with the so-called "perfect storm" analogy, with multiple sources of deceleration combining in a fashion that would have brought any economy to a screeching halt. In short, there may be nothing all that unique about the rapid emergence of the first recession of the New Economy.

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