American Spirit: I admire your optimism, but I think it is misplaced at this time. Any tax cuts and possible reductions in the capital gains tax rate, even if retroactive, will not have any effect on the market this year. Also, the strong employment number (new jobs created) make an intra-meeting rate cut by AG highly unlikely. I think the NASDAQ trades in a range between 2500-2900 through February, then sells off when tech companies report dismal earnings and warnings in March/April.
There will be (IMHO) an extraordinary opportunity to load up on techs, but it will be much later in the year. Meanwhile, from March through October, the defensive plays that worked well last year and a broadly diversified portfolio will probably be the winning play -- a combination of energy/power producers, healthcare, financials, and retailers.
There may be an occasional tech stock that gets very oversold that is worth nibbling on (such as Adobe), but techs are not "the place to be" going forward. Just my opinion; I hate to be this bearish, but our time will come.
Patience will be rewarded. |
