Kevin, we all err, no need to apologize. The only thing you may want to avoid is calling for 100% margin buying the dip, even you are 200% sure that you are right (the best I am on that score is 60% sure I am right <g>), some people may actually do that, and could lose everything in the process.Your current scenario comes closer to mine now, I have a bottom on March 9th (and that could be wrong if the feds go crazy in "worry" and advance their next cut), 11 days before the next FOMC. Part of my rationale is that if the market get close to the January low (2250), a chorus of commentators will start and hype the next FOMC meeting as the salvation, and people are going to buy. If we do not get an extreme of pessimism on that March low (a plurality of days with the Naz tic under -1000 and few other indicators), then we may have an unusual situation were three feds reduction still do not put an end to the bear market. By the way, since in the last tightening cycle, it took more than three feds actions to put a top ion, I would not be surprised to see mirror activity on the bottom.
Zeev |
