Zeev, i have already heard from several of my small business associates in LA, that business hasn't been this bad since the riots (92), remember so california was a laggard in recovery because of the aerospace debacle and the real estate speculation aftermath.
from a chartist perspective, if you look at NAPM from the 90 bear market low, we had 3 drives to a top, i believe the 90's boom has topped and this contraction will be larger than most are expecting, and most investors are still to bullish, the chart i looked at that one of my favorite biz columnist published in the la times biz section, tom petruno, showed the investors were expecting 11% annual returns going into 2000 and that blipped up to 14% at the march nas top and had now returned to around 11% (that was about a month ago).
thats way too bullish, and way above historic returns and shows the capitulation at the top, i have seen other survey's that showed even high expectations from investors.
the trend has not turned yet, all indexes are making lower highs and lower lows, there is no reason to see on 9% bearish muny versus bullish muny in rydex, other than misplaced hope, if they break the downtrendlines in nasdaq, dow and spx, thats another story. |
