60M DVD players in 2004......................
e-town.com
DVD 2004 = VCR 2001
Sales of discs players due to match VCRs in three years 1/31/2001
By David Elrich
SCOTTSDALE, AZ, January 31, 2001 -- By 2004, DVD players will be as popular as VCRs are today.
At least that's the prediction of Cahners In-Stat Group. The high-tech market research firm has predicted that more than 20 million DVD players will be sold in 2004, the same number of VCRs that will be sold this year.
Cahners said the DVD player market has grown from nothing in 1996 to more than 28 million units expected to ship worldwide in 2001. The company expects DVD player sales to exceed 60 million total units by 2004.
This is just the latest DVD-to-replace-VHS forecast. Six months ago, English technology market research firm Strategy Analytics concluded that DVD would replace VHS cassettes by 2005.
Reports of VHS' death may be greatly exaggerated, however.
"Price will be the determining factor in [DVD] unit shipments," says Michelle Abraham, senior analyst for In-Stat's Multimedia Group. "Though [DVD] recorders will be available for less than $1000 by the end of 2001, unit shipments will not reach the millions until prices fall below $500."
The Consumer Electronics Association (CEA) has noted that more than 20 million VCRs, one of the most popular consumer electronics products ever, were bought in 2000 -- at an average price of $94.
New features such as DVD-Audio, component integration leading to lower prices, and new products incorporating DVD technology such as combination TV/DVD players and DVD mini systems, were all cited by Cahners as indicators of rapid market growth -- a 48 percent increase in U.S. shipments in 2001 alone.
In addition, DVD recorders using the DVD-RW and/or DVD+RW formats will be introduced in the U.S. and Europe this year, adding to the number of decks the market research company says consumers will buy. |
