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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical Analysis - Beginners

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To: Trader X who wrote (11312)	2/3/2001 8:54:51 PM
From: Michael Watkins	Read Replies (2) of 12039

Well said but I still disagree 100%. Prediction is what gets newbies into so much trouble. "the 20 crossed over the 50 EMA!, its headed up!" " MACD went green, its going to go up!" "TTTxxxMMMxxxnA indicator make a snake, its going to go up!" "It moved down 62%, stopped right on the fib retracement line, I'm buying big because its going to go up!" "Massive head and shoulders bottom, its going to go up!" "wave 3 over, its going to go up!" Etcetera. I saw your note back to Dick and perhaps we are all speaking the same language here but I will say that I find the use of the word Prediction is dangerous in context with Technical Analysis. We use TA to detect the uptrend and then employ a strategy to take advantage of it, all the while keeping our measurement skills at work to detect the end of the uptrend. Experience may guide us into knowing how far a move may go, but experience also teaches us that the unexpected happens and we will be on guard for that. But I fear the newbie is looking for the simple and easy answer, and Prediction just sounds so sexy, so desirable, that many will fall into that trap and have their heads handed to them. cheers Mike

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