freeus,
Yesterday was fun; we gotta do that regularly, but if we pick a time when the market's on a bull run, we may have to get a bigger place to meet !! <gggg>
Runnin' way late today, but I'll try to answer more late tonight.
Briefly,
NBIX is a low volume stock, so I am not convinced that TA will be that helpful here. The stock is currently oversold, and looks like it might settle into a trading range, since the previous low was not taken out. It is running into resistance at the long term moving averages, and not likely to have much steam to the upside, so I would consider the risk relatively low. However, I also do not see a lot of downside potential.
askresearch.com
It is very interesting to expand the time frame with NBIX to two years:
askresearch.com
Here, you see a different picture which is not apparent on shorter time frames. The stock appears to be in an uptrend, but currently is in a consolidation phase/base. This has happened before with NBIX, and was always resolved to the upside. That alone would make me look elsewhere for a short.
But there are other recurrent themes with NBIX. It seems to like to form big saucer formations, followed by a flag/pennant formation, which then resolves into a basing period which eventually is resolved to the upside!
The size of these saucer formations has decreased over time, but the most recent one occurred between September and the beginning of November, whereupon a flag formation occurred lasting about a month, and began the current trading range:
askresearch.com
Note that the gap down in early January is not a professional gap, since the trading volume is so low. This stock does not necessarily rely upon professional/institutional buying pressure for upward (or downward) price movement; I have not checked, but usually with a stock trading these kinds of daily volumes, there is relatively little institutional/professional interest, because the float is so small that for them to take any significant position would result in excessive buying pressure which would unduly influence the stock price, and they would end up shooting themselves in the foot because now they are left holding stock that has been artificially inflated by their own buying pressure, and now has little upward momentum left, and invites profit taking by current shareholders. Most institutional investors have guidelines which preclude them from investing in low float/low volume stocks for this reason. So stock price is determined more by retailers, momentum players, daytraders, and internal market manipulators.
More later.....gotta go
JMVHO.......
WS |
