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Technology Stocks : Broadband Wireless Access [WCII, NXLK, WCOM, satellite..]

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To: gruetz who wrote (1621)2/4/2001 2:57:45 PM
From: Bernard Levy  Read Replies (1) of 1860
 
Hi gruetz:

You should not let my prediction of nil appreciation
for CLECs deter you from taking or expanding positions
within the next 9 to 12 months, since I expect that when
a move will take place it will be sudden and unexpected.
With respect to my diversification advice, the reasoning
is as follows: if you look at all CLECs, there will be
a bar somewhere separating the survivors from the
losers. The highest return will be provided by the first
CLEC above the bar, and the lowest by the top CLEC below
the bar. Yet what separates these two today is probably
barely perceptible. I am reasonably sure MCLD and TWTC
are above the bar, but I am not 100% sure about XOXO
and WCII. So the idea is to average out to have your
winners compensate for the losers.

I am rather positive on Q, LVLT, GBX, and MFNX even
short term. Incidentally, the analog for this group
of XOXO/WCII is WCG (the fiber commodity king). It
is the most risky but with the highest leverage.

Wrt the RBOCs, I was positive on them until VZ
went crazy during the last PCS auction (the reauction
of the licenses returned to the FCC after the failed
96 auction). Telecom companies need to spend their
money on building networks, not on cutting checks to
governments.

Best regards,

Bernard Levy
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