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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 671.91

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Nov 14 4:00 PM EST

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To: Arik T.G. who wrote (68515)	2/4/2001 3:36:23 PM
From: Death Sphincter	Read Replies (2) of 99985

I do see the pattern from 12/21. but are we sure is it done? however, lets look back at the big picture. We have both been following the Big ED look of the NYSE for quite some time. We both could see the ending of a wave back at the Sept high as the NYSE then dropped sharply. The look back then was...and continues to be....was that Sept high the end of 3 of the ED or was that the end of 5 of the ED? I know at the time you were leaning more to the '5th' and I was leaning towards the '3rd'. but the decline from Sept high stopped right on the lower rising trend line and headed back up. at that point on the chart we had 2 possibilities. #1 possible was that the ED was indeed completed at Sept high. If so, when an ED completes it is a'Katy bar the door reversal' and if that was the end you should have expected a bounce off the lower trendline and then all hell breaks loose to the downside and since this ED is of a major wave status, the ensuing decline should quickly head down into the 500s. but that didn't happen...and it lends support to the idea of Sept being 3 #2 possible was that the Sept high was 3 and the ensuing decline to the lower trendline was 4(or part of 4) and the 5th of ED was setting up. It looks like this is more feasible Thing about these EDs is that their 5th rarely 'fail'. sure they do sometimes but from what I've been able to discern it is usually in the form of a double top kind of look. and furthermore the 5th of an ED is more often a spike look without a clearly defined ABC. The odds strongly favor a return to the top trendline...but odds is odds!! It's just more common for that to happen then for a failed 5th. so that is why I continue to look for the 5th to follow the more likely pattern, where A of 5 approaches high of 3...B of 5 pulls back...and C of 5 spikes to or(quickly and temporarily!) thru the top trendline...with all of this taking into consideration that 5 of the ED will not exceed the length of 3. so where does this leave us NOW?????? is this REALLY A of 5? if so, is A done? is the entire market done with the move up from beginning of year? or is NAZ just pulling back to fill that gap before making its run to 3020? We should know next week, if it is a pullback then NAZ should head back up soon. That's how I am playing it right now, NAZ back up to 3020 area and NYSE follows NAZ up and approaches its 680 area. Majority of ED 5th waves are quick and sharp so I'm looking for the 'majority pattern' 1st. But, current econ recession outlook, (which is responsible for the doubt in market AND the ED look) may influence the 'look' of the 5th of ED and may turn the look into an ED of its own...you follow? instead of the 'norm' sharp up 5th we get an ABC 5th with the C wave having its own ED sneaking up to the top trendline. boy, that was a lot of crap wasn't it? Carl

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