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Technology Stocks : Semiconductor Packaging (SEMX)
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To: DELT1970 who wrote (525)2/5/2001 12:22:53 AM
From: DELT1970  Read Replies (1) of 545
 
Reviewed R&R Nov 27, SEMX Update
by: rogtradr711 on Yahoo board

Future murky but....Potential EPS of $1.50-$2.00 within 3 years, P/E range of 20X-30X for a target of $30-$60. Peer group was PE 17.3, and I was surpised to see AMAT, KLIC, and LRCX included in the group. Assumed margins get back to last years 35% level in several quarters, and SEMX can grow EPS at 30-50% and trade at a premium to the group.

2. Apparently they have held off making estimates for 2001 b/c of lack of near term visibility. "We hope this can be achieved after full year earnings are reported next year".

3. Customers wanted an additional assembled product ceramic supplier, particularly a domestic one, and demand will outstrip SEMX's ability to supply the product.

It was an interesting read, got it from IR. Guess the main questions I'll be interested in hearing about on the CC will be, What is the yield rate on the new assembled ceramic product? How much of the margin depression was caused by the physical dislocation of production as opposed to extra costs associated with the new assembled product and it's yield rate? and what is the backlog number? Sure would be nice if Management could provide specific range EPS guidence....regards

I think R&R is Rodman and Renshaw, who maintains coverage on SEMX. Current SEMX boardmember Steve Sands of Sands Brothers used to work at Rodman and Renshaw. R&R may have "unusual" insight here, but I'm only guessing.
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