Pat,
Most points you contest are arguable, and difficult to respond to [>>TSC said, Kalla said, "Pat said", I say -- all very difficult to follow]; so let me choose only one contentious point that I think central to the interview and subsequent discussion.
TSC: What patterns develop when carriers have less money to spend?
Kalla: A lot depends on the economy. When the economy is good and money is flowing freely, they'll buy the best thing. But when money tightens up, they will consolidate their purchases with one supplier...
Pat: "Far from focusing on single vendors, carriers are moving more and more to best-of-breed solutions. When she suggests Lucent is strong and Ciena weak, do you agree with her? How about Cisco versus Juniper?"
Tulvio: I do believe with the thrust of Kalla's argument that in tough times customers do one of two things:
1. gravitate to turnkey, one-stop, suppliers who can furnish the hardware, software, systems integration, support and, importantly to those vendors whose survivability is beyond dispute.
2. bring the work in house if the capability exists to do it in house, even if it costs a tad more and is not the best of breed solution. Often this is seen as opportunity to catch up with best of breed technology. Economic slowdown often provides the time needed for second bests to catch up. Remember that Betamax was best of breed tsolution that didn't survive.
Signs of this happening now is the case of gorilla EMC taking share away from best-of-breed technology competitors. A case in point is discussed here,
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I suspect the same thing may be happening with Cisco v. Juniper routers. John Chambers has been saying that economic slowdown is an opportunity to gain market share. Lately Cisco has launched new products and has been calling Juniper the MacIntosh of routers -- meaning : best of breed solution doesn't rule the roost. We'll soon see if Cisco is recapturing market share.
LU v. Ciena, you may be right on this one. But ,then again, don't count out the Bell Labs folks if they were to get some decent management. LU, too, can use the slowdown to advantage.
I don't mean to start a jihad here, -- just offering another point of view.
Tulvio |
