So then I suppose the real question is...
Different than...what?
If I were forced to give a direct response to your statement, 'I should also point out that a few posts back, you expressed disdain for "This time it's different" arguments. Now you're making a "This time it's different" argument of your own.' I would say, no, this time is no different and the evidence is out there. For example, when the ABN Amro (?) analyst upgraded Klic last week, he stated that [sic]the company's BtB was consistent with the low point of previous cycles. If you want to enter at or near the bottom, not only do you need to act completely counter to prevailing sentiment, but you need to appreciate the subtle signs of turnaround. While it's obvious fundamentals will play a role in the recovery of the sector, fundamentals will have little, if anything, to do with the earliest stages.
Anticipation, void of factual evidence, will play the key role. It's driven the sector ~50% since December...and it will probably take us a lot further. If you wait for the fundamentals to come around you'll miss half the run.
I am indeed disdainful of hubris, my own included (appearances notwithstanding). In other words, I doubt ANYone can discern all the elements determining the various stages of the cycle. My consistent point has been that the participants of this thread have been no more disciplined at going against the grain at any stage than either the analysts or Joe Blow. |
