QCOM - A Viper!
Did I hear my name? Let's take a look at some clues here.
First, the weekly profile. Hummmm? The first thing that came
to my mind was all those folks that paid $90 to $150. I ask
myself, "what would I do if I paid $90 in November 2000 and
now it is Febuary 2001 and I just might be able to break
even with my purchase?" The answer is I would dump.
Other clues? The volume has been average to less than
average for QCOM. BBs and the moving average in the center
is just about horizontal. Well, sideways at best since the
upper BBs and lower BBs are getting tighter and the $90
overhead resistance is not going away yet. It would take
some fantastic news to propel QCOM beyond $90 at this point.
There is a army of dumpers above $100. So, forget about new
52-week highs anytime soon.
OBV and the RSI are pretty high for QCOM with a 65 RSI being
the peak the last time it gapped. Let's see what the daily
chart profile has to offer. The weekly profile we will call
a sideways bias within a narrow range at best.
Weekly QCOM Chart
stockcharts.com[m,a]wallyymy[de][pd20,2!c20][vc60][iUb14!Lg!Lf]
Daily QCOM Chart
stockcharts.com[m,a]dallyymy[dd][pd20,2!c20][vc60][iUb14!Lg!Lf]
Well, we get a slightly better picture. Upper and lower BBs
are spreading apart somewhat and the center moving average
is in an upward bias. Although, the upper BBs has a solid
tag and the RSI is about to peak.
Summary: QCOM will close above the FEB85s strike on options
expiration but not remain above $90 after expiration day.
They must be pumping up the stock to pull out!
QCOM Fundamentals
One word! OVERPRICED even with a consensus Future 5-yr
Growth Rate: 35.64%.
NASDAQ: (QCOM : $86 7/16) (QCMMO : $764 75/100) $64,692
million Market Cap at February 5, 2001 Ranks 610th in the
Fortune 1,000 on Revenue & 422nd on Profit. Employs 9,700.
Trades at a Premium PE Multiple of 84.7 X, vs. the 38.0 X
average multiple at which the communications Equipment
SubIndustry is priced.
Well, here is perhaps a reason the stock will take a dip
soon....
Monday February 5, 4:20 PM (EST)
Ex-Bush official to sell $17 mln in Qualcomm shares
WASHINGTON, Feb 5 (Reuters) - Brent Scowcroft, who was
national security adviser to former President George Bush
before joining mobile phone company Qualcomm Inc. (QCOM),
exercised a stock option for 200,000 shares of Qualcomm and
plans to sell the stock, according to a government filing.
The 200,000 shares had a market value of $17 million when
Scowcroft, who sits on Qualcomm's board of directors, made
the filing on Jan. 30 with the Securities and Exchange
Commission.
Corporate insiders are required to report their stock sale
intentions in SEC filings.
A spokeswoman for the San Diego-based company did not
immediately return a call seeking comment.
Scowcroft's filing came several days after the company
posted higher pro forma first-quarter earnings, beating
Wall Street estimates, and backed profit-growth forecasts
for the year.
Qualcomm shares ended trading down 6/16 at $86-7/16 on
Nasdaq. The stock has been as high as $162-9/16 and as low
as $51-8/16 in the past 52 weeks.
The question is what does this fellow know that we don't?
With 79 days left until the next earning report the last
"whisper numbers" are:
Consensus Estimate: $0.28
Whisper Number: $0.29
Actual Earnings: $0.29
Again! The street will pound QCOM if it comes in short.
SUMMARY
I would allow myself to get called out if I had a profit. I
might do some sideshows with Feb. long calls on QCOM to
milk any additional capital appreciation above my spread
strike price of $85 and dump them. That should more than
cover the commissions cost on exercised spread. |
