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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor
GDXJ 97.99+0.3%4:00 PM EST
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To: Rarebird who wrote (63397)2/5/2001 11:57:08 PM
From: Crimson Ghost  Read Replies (3) of 116753
 
To me there is an excellent chance that gold will break free this year. Not a sure thing by any means, but a good chance nonetheless.

My contention is that gold can only move big time when big money starts to fear that events are spiralling out of control and even Greenspan's tricks cannot put things right.

I note the breaking od the NAZ bubble looks to have been deliberate policy on the part of the Fed. And the rest of the market rallied as the NAZ tanked. Hardly a manifestation of panic or loss of control.

But with the Fed now aggressively easing and the Wall Street consensus expecting a major economic rebound in the second half -- what happens if the economy continues to sink a la Japan despite aggressive Fed ease. This is the expectation of Don Hays -- one of the few people who has been extremely accurate on the stock market this past year.

I can envision true panic hitting the stock market and the big money crowd if the Fed fails to revive the economy via monetary reflation. That would set the stage for a major route in the entire market (not just the NAZ) This is the type of confidence destroying scenario that could generate enough investment demand for gold to finally overwhelm the CBs and the shorts.

The key to a gold bull is not a weaker dollar (although that would certainly help) But rather in a mass loss of confidence in the ability of the Fed and Treasury to keep the bubble going any longer despite their best efforts.
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