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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates

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To: Don Mosher who wrote (38923)	2/6/2001 3:57:34 AM
From: JAPG	Read Replies (1) of 54805

Don, Network topology, rate of growth and acceleration/deceleration of the rate of growth are only part of the equation. In US circa 1980, fixed telephone network topology was already established, and almost everybody was connected. The network was growing slowly and in the TALC curve we were in the laggards phase. If I was a patent lawyer at that date, I could pick up the phone and call any patent office in the world and any other patent lawyer I wanted, also they could call me. The network had been established: the connections and the nodes were there. Also the primary NE were there, any new patent lawyer that got connected to the network added value to the network. The other part of the equation, not very much talked about, are the “Network Efficiency Effects” NEE. In a fixed size Network ( 0 growth) NEE adds value to the individual members of the network in 3 ways: 1)By adding content to nodes. By content I mean information and new applications that leverage the content of the node. In the patent lawyer example a call center to answer questions on the phone would augment the value to the individual of the fixed network. 2) By improving node connections The benefits of broadband are pretty clear 3) By adding intelligence to the network (nodes and connections). Natural language, embedded AI, and agents that perform tasks unattended all add value to the network and individuals within it. The internet was born by using the existing telephone network and leveraging on NEE. Microsoft and Sun new initiatives rely more on NEE than NE. From the GG investor point of view I see that it is important to watch for new products and companies that leverage NEE as well as for companies whose network are growing exponentially. A word of caution: a gorilla is not necessarily born out of NEE. All of the above IMHO Take care JAPG

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