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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!
LRCX 165.81+1.9%Dec 9 4:00 PM EST
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To: Math Junkie who wrote (9453)2/6/2001 8:22:03 AM
From: scott_jiminez   of 10921
 
Richard - I appreciate the effort you placed in your response. I shall attempt to respond in kind later today or tomorrow. One point that help may clarify your confusion of my views: when I state explicitly or implicitly that 'this cycle is no different', I wish to convey the idea that this bottom will be as difficult to discern as every other cycle and that investors will be as reluctant to acknowledge its occurrence, just like most refused to recognize the top last spring, as in every other cycle. The sector's cyclicity may appear highly regular; there are characteristics of each one that are different.

Similarities and differences. Difficult to figure out. That's what makes this cycle no different. And let's not forget the sector has rallied 50%+ without one iota of data of recovery yet. Some may think this an a sucker's rally, an anomaly. I say it's precisely this sort of rally - one that has virtually no support from fundamentals - that is the signal of a bottom and should continue for 6 months or so before the 'real' fundamentals come around. This is a 'past pattern', where support can be found only in the subtlest of fundamental data, that makes the most sense as a predictor to me.

JMOH (just my own hubris)
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