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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 694.04

+0.7%

Jan 9 4:00 PM EST

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To: HairBall who started this subject	2/6/2001 2:07:47 PM
From: Les H	Read Replies (2) of 99985

WHAT TO EXPECT NOW. February 5, 2001. Ord Oracle. The March S& P traded sideways today ending up with a candlestick pattern called a "Low Price Harami line". "Low Price Harami Line" patterns that form after a decline can mark the halfway of the move. If that remains true this time around, than the next downside target will be near the 1324 level. So far on the present decline, no high downtick reading exceeding minus 900 have been recorded. Downtick reading exceeding minus 900 appear near short-term lows. Our "Percent Volume" indicator closed today at .53, which is still near the sell area of .56. For the moment, we have to say the short term down trend is still intact. The next support area is the 1324 level and the next major support is the 1275 level. We are staying short the SPX. The Nasdaq 100 "5 day ARMS" came in on Friday at 8.26 and today at 8.93. The last time the Nasdaq saw these type of a high reading came on January 8 with a reading of 8.39, right before a 400 point Nasdaq rise. The next highest reading before that came on December 20 with a reading of 10.28. The next day the Nasdaq 100 started a significant rally that lasted a week. Therefore, with the current "5 day ARMS" reading over 8, we are not big bears on the Nasdaq for the short term. We are staying flat the Nasdaq 100. We are bullish on gold. Wave "1" up was the October 1999 rally. Wave "2" down ended at the November 2000 lows. We think wave "3" has started on the Monthly chart. marketweb.com

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