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Technology Stocks : WDC/Sandisk Corporation
WDC 172.26-2.2%Dec 31 3:59 PM EST
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To: Ausdauer who wrote (18960)2/6/2001 2:57:53 PM
From: Art Bechhoefer  Read Replies (1) of 60323
 
When a new type of product (e.g., flash memory) first appears, one typically finds many versions of the product. The version that eventually prevails is usually the one with higher capacity at a reasonable price. Here are some examples:

33-1/3 rpm long play records eventually dominated over 45 rpm records. The CD successfully replaced LP records not just because of durability and fidelity but because the size of a CD was determined initially to be sufficient to hold the entire recording of Beethoven's Ninth Symphony, whereas the symphony could fit only on two LP's. The VHS video recording system became standard because initially a VHS casette could record twice as much video as the old Beta casettes. VHS still prevailed over the newer and more compact 8mm casettes because by that time VHS had already become an acceptable standard.

I wouldn't be surprised if several different compact flash formats continued in the marketplace for several years. But right now, the MMC/SDMC card that is scheduled to be produced in Virginia by the SanDisk-Toshiba joint venture looks like it could prevail over all the others, including compact flash. With 512 mb capacity scheduled for cards to be produced this year, and 1.2 gb scheduled for next year, this seems to be hard to beat, especially if you accept the assumption that higher capacity usually wins out.

It is also true that the smaller the physical product, the more likely it eventually will beat the competition in terms of price. Given the above advantages of the designs incorporated into SanDisk products, I guess I'm more optimistic than many other investors. I think there is a reasonably sound basis for this optimism.

Art
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