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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)

CSCO 76.94

+1.1%

Nov 28 9:30 AM EST

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To: RetiredNow who wrote (48223)	2/6/2001 9:14:34 PM
From: telecomguy	Read Replies (5) of 77400

Mindmeld/Phoenix, I remember when Chambers was crowing a few months back about how both LU and NT were faltering and not executing and that CSCO is the only company that was executing.........it's now really interesting that he is blaming the TELECOM sector for CSCO's inability to meet his guidance numbers. What was their growth numbers for the Carrier sector versus Enterprise? I heard that they didn't disclose this number. Why not I wonder? Also wasn't Chambers going on & on about how CSCO was not as exposed as NT and LU because they were far less reliant on the Telecom sector for their revenue (assumption being that the Enterprise was their core market I guess!). Now, he is blaming the telco sector for their shortfall??? Chambers shouldn't have gloated -- now he is looking awfully stupid. Based on the comments he made today and their rapid deterioration in revenue generation & balance sheet, I would have to say unequivocally that NT's visibility is FAR GREATER than CSCO's in the coming year. At least NT has a dominant market share in fibre optics and soon-to-be-dominant or near-dominant share in the great Cellular Infrastructure (G3) network buildout market. I would say that the growth prospects for NT is far more positive than CSCO's at this point. Remember that NT serves the TOP TIER CARRIERS because of their dominant position in optics & cellular.......hence NT's customers are less suceptible to bond financing problems. CSCO on the other hand is the new guy trying to "buy" their way into NT's turf and taking on the new Tier II (and below) Carriers (so called Next-Gen carriers) who are now gasping for survival as the long-term junk bond market cratered. In any case CSCO was and will be a bit player in the Carrier network buildout market and has only been able to make small headways by signing up small underfunded next-gen Carriers who are probably now postponing,cancelling, and reneging on A/R & Inventory committments to CSCO. On top of that JNPR and host of other next-gen edge router vendors are eating up CSCO's main dinner and one can see that very quickly CSCO's prospects are all of a sudden quite scary. I wish you guys the best but in the long-term, I would be very nervous about CSCO maintaining their leadership in growth. Their visibility is quite poor and the skeletons will/may start to come out of closet in huge numbers. Live by the sword, die by the sword -- that is a saying one has to remember in the current tech market. NT is not immune either of course but the blue-chip, conservative Tier I carriers they serve are far less likely to dissappear or have problems funding their buildout projects and also are far less likely to be experimenting with small-niche vendors when time-to-market and deliverability track record becomes all-important as the great communication shakeout is starting. We are living in interesting times and the vendor that gets it right will probably be the next BIGGEST, MOST HIGHLY CAPITALIZED, MOST PROFITABLE company in the world, replacing GE and MSFT. Who will it be? CSCO? LU? ALA? NOK? or NT? That is THE million dollar question that I have put my money on! The Gorilla is dead --- what dominant specie will replace it?

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