Bobby...you make some good points....but what to do if the Fed keeps adding liquidity (billions) thru daily measures (repos)....that money is sitting in the banks hands (wanting to make add'l $$$), and usually goes straight into the market, no?
Now, it does look like the Dow is the more safe play (intermediate term)...remember, I'm making the assumption- probably valid, that bonds will receive only a small portion of the funds....however, old habits are hard to break...as recently as January, some folks made some obscene money on techs....50, 60, even 70% on some stocks....so these banks are going to stick it in Tyco, and wait a year to make 20-25%? I dunno, but I think you'll see some of this money still chase techs...of course, it'll probably avoid the market in (possible) liquidity situations (tax season?) (right after Fed meeting in March?)...but between now and March 21, I would think those on the short side must be cognizant of the stream of liquidity possibility raising all boats even higher...
When the Fed turns off the spigot (May? June? August?)...maybe that's when will see a real crack in the pie...but until then, doncha think there is some underlying support here...
If the Naz breaks 2300, doncha think AG would do another inter-meeting cut? Looking back at the 10 year log chart on the Naz.....every time the Fed got friendly....good times resulted... |
