Ben,
<< I wonder how GSM800 will effect, if at all, Anatel's problems selling GSM1900 licenses.... Or, conversely, how Anatel's problems selling GSM1999 licenses may dampen prospects for GSM800 - at least in L A.... >>
The Anatel decision in Brazil was to auction dedicated PCS spectrum in 1800 MHz (like Europe and China) not 1900 MHz spectrum (like the Americas). The second link you provided refers to 1900 MHz and that is incorrect.
The 1800 MHZ band sits just below the original ITU IMT-2000 "wide" band set aside by carriers in Japan, Korea, China, and Europe and this set up a follow on auction to auction 3G spectrum, 6 months to 1 year after the 1800 MHz auctions concluded, in a band for which "W-CDMA" is currently optimized.
The following statement is. IMO" valid.
"There's a reluctance to invest in technology that will soon be outdated, especially if you're not in the market already"
GSM-1800 is somewhat obsolete in that its migration path is (was) only to GPRS. Now of course EDGE has completed standardization and like 1xRTT it is considered to be "3G", and Brazil was dedicating this spectrum to 2G (and could regulate it and cap it) to encourage 3G.
What we have now is a new option. GSM-800/900/1800/1900 and a migration path to UMTS through GPRS then EDGE.
800 MHz carriers have a new factor in play.
It is hard to say whether 1900 MHz auctions would have attracted more bidders. I think it might have, but I look at Sprint dropping out of the low suds Canadian auctions.
Right now, investors and VC's are real leery of auctions.
The problem is not so much auctioning spectrum, it is auctioning so much of it, all over the globe, all at once.
My first reaction to the auction postponement was positive, since it delayed GSM intro into Brazil, and will give neighboring nations considering along Anatels chosen lines, pause.
I still feel that way. 1900 MHz a better decision for Brazil. It evens the field between CDMA, TDMA, and GSM. But this postponement introduces uncertainty and we have too much of that in the sector already.
GSM-800 adds a new trump card to the GSM deck.
Now, even if GSM 1900 auctioned, you could configure AMPS/CDMA 800 & 1900 but also AMPS/GSM 800 & 1900, where before CDMA (or TDMA) was available in addition to GSM in the upper band but not the lower.
One things for sure. Brazil didn't get the turn out they expected from Europe and Asia.
We shall se what we shall see, out of this.
<< Q is behaving remarkably well, so far, considering SSB's research note! >>
Yes. I think the analysts already factored down the 90 million. I had already done the math. <g> The trick becomes later this half if numbers get reduced again. My math says 80, if 500, 85 if 520, 90 if 540. Irwin didn't get trapped into discussing worldwide sub growth and replacement ratios to the degree that Jorma did (which is natural because NOK has to factor all technologies. That's a plus.
I agreed with the logic of your (original) SSB post. I think there 2002 numbers relative to data takeup (GPRS) are conservative ... but that remains to be seen. It is a negative for data take up. The interoperability issues are real. 1x whatever will get into this more and more as they ascend the complexity ladder and get into converged multi-mode. I was very glad to see no mention of cdma or cdma2000 (which was positive by inference). The tone of the research was negative, but realistically so. Expectations have to come down. They have. Hopefully the industry can surprise to the upside at some point in time.
<< The older I get, the less inclined I am to roll the bones.... And the meek, in fact, inherit nothing. <g> >>
I hear ya ... I wish I had been just a bit meeker last year. <g> My aggressive play (don't laugh) that paid off so far was adding some MSFT back in the mix.
Best,
- Eric - |
