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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates
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To: DaYooper who wrote (39061)2/7/2001 2:58:54 PM
From: mtnlady  Read Replies (2) of 54805
 
"Do you think folks will already be pricing in a recession tomorrow? That may not really happen until April earnings season, imo.

Why is everyone convinced this economic slowdown will only last two quarters?"

Excellent points. My thinking is simply this:

a) No I don't think people have priced in a recession yet.. just a slow down. That's why I think the market will see it's ultimate lows sometime in the time frame (spring-summer) you suggest. Several very good TA folks see July as the real problem area. Tax time might be another real danger time.

b) the stock market is always looking ahead 6-10-12 months. If the recession lifts next year we should see the market begin to recover fall of this year or the beginning of next.

c) Length of recession. I realize that recessions tend to be multi year events 2-3 years is the norm *I think!*. However everything, and I mean everything, seems to be speeded up now days. Market shot up faster than ever before. Market bottom dropped out faster than ever before. JIT inventory methodologies and the like. Faster information dissemination. You name it. I just think everything will be faster, and more volatile, than ever before. That's why I think we will be coming out of the slowdown sometime next year. And .. with a new group of leaders in the stock market (JDSU, EMC and/or NTAP, SEBL, QCOM etc..).
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