| Well, I was right on CSCO hitting 30, and wrong on AMAT hitting 40 today. So, the money I took out of AMAT at 50 on 1/18, went into CSCO at 30 1/8 today. I think the Nasdaq is going to be up for the year, but it's going to be very choppy, lots of wild swings. So, I think it's a traders market for at least the first half. I'm willing to pick up the highest-quality stocks, but only when sentiment on them is very bad, and only when I think the bad news is in the stock. CSCO at 30 has given back the entire Fall 1999 to Spring 2000 tech bubble; sentiment on that stock is as bad as when I last bought it in early 1997. The longterm picture for the company's position in its industry, and the industry, is as good as ever. That's when I like to buy a stock. But, as with my purchase of AMAT at 40 in November, I'm a "weak hand". It won't take much to get me to sell, and I'm not sure this is a longterm holding. |
