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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation
CRSP 56.68-2.4%Dec 12 9:30 AM EST
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To: Biomaven who wrote (2844)2/7/2001 4:00:21 PM
From: Biomaven  Read Replies (1) of 52153
 
for a cumulative probability of a compound entering Phase I of about 15%.

Thanks to lrb for pointing out that those probabilities actually multiply to about 22%, not 15%. (One too many .7 in my multiplication!).

So that should be a little better than a 1 in 5 shot of ultimate success for a candidate just entering Phase 1.

Peter

P.S. Unless of course you need to add back that .7 these days for the chance of withdrawal after approval. <g>
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