Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 262.92

+0.4%

Dec 29 3:59 PM EST

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To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (41909)	2/7/2001 5:10:22 PM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (2) of 70976

OT to Jacob, From the posts of yours that I've read on this thread, I've formed the conclusion that you tend to err on the side of caution if at all. Thus I'm surprised to see you buy CSCO so soon. I counted 8 downgrades earlier today and 5 Reiterations, of which only one was a Strong Buy. Earnings for the coming year are likely to be about 70¢ at best. So you paid about 43 times Earnings for a company which is forecasting no growth short term. Further, JNPR which has alliances with both NT and ALA has taken 30% Market share during the past 2 years for the high end routers. Other competitors are successfully applying pressure to other niches. Personally I just can't see the market continuing to award CSCO such a high multiple given that it's now conclusively shown that it's not quite so invincible. Do you still believe in the long term CSCO story? ... or do you just see it as a bargain because of the new 52 week low? ... Something else? I'm tempted to step in as well because of distance from recent highs but fear that the Market might give it a 30 multiple on 70¢ keeps me sitting firmly on my hands. in advance, thanks, ian.

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