OT re CSCO:
Today, after the stock has been declining for almost a year, the united voice of the Experts shouted at the market: "sell Cisco!". If the market was going to assign a 30 multiple to CSCO, they would have done so today. The stock would have gapped down to new lows. They didn't......so I don't think they will. Basically, I think the bad news is in the stock. And I think analyst up/downgrades correlate with current sentiment, but don't correlate with future stock price.
There is no company with better management, or in a higher-growth industry, than Cisco. They may miss a quarter. They may have problems with a product for a while. But they will always come back. I remember very similar discussions, the last time CSCO was out of favor, in early 1997. Bay Networks and 3Com (remember them?) were supposed to be formidable competitors, with superior technology. Then as now, lots of investors were worried about CSCO's high valuation (PE of 30, compared to about 15 for the others in their industry).
I am a cautious investor. So, I buy high-quality, high-PE stocks on margin, on a day when the last analyst downgrades, and the last weak hand sells. I'm expecting the stock to bounce here. If it doesn't, I'll admit I was wrong, and sell. Maybe I'm the last weak hand. |
