Mark,
I have a few comments to make so this post may be a little long (warning).
First off, you are justified in blowing your own horn for your caution about the COX-2s. I know you have maintained this view point all along and have always stressed the importance of the phase IV Pennsaid has under its belt.
The two FDA proclamations today, IMHO, are HUGE. It's a clear indication to me that this is the "new" FDA. They have been under heavy public scrutiny in the last year or two for many irresponsible and hasty approvals, and political corruptness. Seems they have started to make a very overt effort to alter that public perception and appear to be acting once again in the best interest of public health. Todays NRs were a direct confirmation of that new attitude, as are the recent policy changes regarding HIV/AIDS treatments.
In fact, I noticed in the AIDS policy NR the other day, the mention of bringing the policy back in line with the ultimate critereon of risk vs. benefit. While this critereon has always been paramount in the FDA guidelines, it has been neglected in the stampede to get unproven drugs to market because of public or political pressures, either from within or without the FDA. The judgement against the COX-2s today was a clear indication that risk vs. benefit is once again the primary critereon which supercedes all other interests and rationale.
Put Pennsaid through a risk vs. benefit test, and there is NO DOUBTING that Pennsaid will not only receive FDA, but may likely receive some kind of special acknowledgment by the FDA as a safer alternative. I don't know how, but I suppose that special recognition could take the form of either special status labelling or the allowance to make certain marketing claims to that effect. While I have always felt that FDA approval was certain, I am now of the belief that we may just get that special endorsement by the FDA to boot.
This news, though not directly material (right now anyway) to Dimethaid, may just be the catalyst to trigger the next wave up on the stock price. The last hour or two today seemed to signal that $7.60 may be the turn point on this wave down. I was following MD for the last couple hours and noticed the bids picking up heavily between $7.50 to $7.65. At one point I was able to count 50,000 shares on the bid around 3:45pm. They eventually moved out of site as the bids moved up, thanks to the wonderful 5 penny deep market depth that the TSE is providing.
Technical analysis is confirming the $7.60 today as a bottom on this wave. If you draw a straight line through the January 8 low and the January 18 low, then project that line forward, you will see it passes right through today's close (using the 6 month logarithmic line chart). So, the uptrend is still intact and has not been violated to the downside.
Interesting also, is the 50 DMA is moving upward at a rapid pace and is currently at $7.48 (ie. 12c from our low today).
Overlay the Bollinger bands and you will notice that the price tends to bounce between the lower band and the 20 day SMA while in a bearish wave, and between the upper band and the 20 day SMA while in a bullish wave. Since we closed at $7.70 on Jan 22, we began a trend upward and have since moved to the upper half of the bands. Today we closed right on the 20 day SMA which should be the bounce point for the next move up.
Slow stochastic entered oversold condition as well today.
Sorry for the long thoughts.
joe
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