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QUOTE
Subject: Nasdaq, a 20%+ rally expected
Cisco's results just about end the reporting system. This icon stock disappointed yet the key Nasdaq indices closed comfortably off their lows yesterday.
My view is that the January peaks mark only the first part of a first quarter rally on Nasdaq. I believe there is a very good chance that correction lows were seen yesterday and a move to new recovery highs are underway.
Consider the key indices:
Nasdaq Composite
3 January low: 2,252 to 24 January peak: 2,892 (640 points or a 28% advance)
From 2,892 to 7 February low: 2,555 (337 points, a 53% retracement-close to the important 50%- of the 2,252-2,892 rally)
Nasdaq 100
3 January low: 2,087 to 24 January peak: 2,772 (685 points or a 33% -one third-advance)
From 2,772 to 7 February low: 2,350 (422 points, a Fibonacci 62% retracement of the 2,087-2,772 rally)
It is no coincidence that the Nasdaq 100, the narrower index but with all the important icon stocks, traced out important relationships exactly. From a mass psychology point of view it is the more relevant index.
At yesterdays close both indices are close to short term oversold positions, an ideal position for the recovery rally to resume from. Measured move objectives point to 20%+ upside (3,195 for the Nasdaq Composite, 3,035 for the Nasdaq 100)
Asian investors (who share this view!) should consider stocks such as Samsung Electronics in Korea, Powerchip, TSMC, UMC and Via in Taiwan, China Mobile and Legend in Hong Kong, Chartered Semiconductor and Datacraft in Singapore.
Chris Roberts
Global Technical Strategist
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