Greg,
NDX remains in a technical downtrend. The rally which began in early January did break a downtrend line at about 2700 or so, but then failed at the declining 50 day ema.
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Now testing support in the 2600 area, which I think is an important test because this represents the upper rail of the downtrend channel. A failure in this area would mean short term 2400 is very doable; successful test of support would mean a retest of the 50 day ema at 2800 is likely.
I very much like the power sector at the moment, for obvious reasons (AMSC dirt, dirt cheap; CPN solid going forward; also SYXI, PWER, FCEL, CPST, IRF, EMR all worth at least watching IMHO).
Macroeconomically, things look cautiously hopeful to me. Tax cuts, continued easing bias might together provide at least a temporary stimulus to growth. I'm not at all convinced that this will be sufficient to ward off recessionary forces, however. But the thing I'm most concerned with is inflation, particularly from increased energy costs from all sources, not just electricity. Accelerating inflation, should it occur, will kill everything.
JMVHO,
WS |
