I had an analyst call me today and we chatted. He discussed my "scorecard" relative to our discussions over the past 6-8 months. His bottom line to me was that I have an uncanny knack of analyzing and developing stocks way ahead of the mainstream. He says I see things well before others and before market reality takes place for these stocks. In his comparision, he mentioned the following companies: AEIS, ALYD, APM, ASYT, ASMLF, ATMI, BYDS, CFMT, CIG, CYMI, DELL, DY, IDTI, NSO, ONTK, PLAB, QCOM, QNTM, REFR, TNCR, WDC and WFR. He then broke them down into 3 groups:
AEIS, ASYT, ASMLF, CFMT, CYMI, ONTK, PLAB, and WFR = GROUP 1
APM, ATMI, DELL, IDTI, QCOM, QNTM, TNCR, WDC = Group 2
ALYD, BYDS, CIG, DY, NSO, and REFR = GROUP 3
Group 1 represents companies that were out of his mainstream but in his field and where, in good conscience, he would not have considered recommending at the time I mentioned them. However, by the time they became worthwhile to look at, they had made a substantial run (AEIS 5 to 10, ASMLF 18 to 70, ASYT 18 to 36, CFMT 21 to 40, CYMI 9 to 50, ONTK 18 to take over, PLAB 22 to 40, WFR 22 to 45). He believed I entered these stocks way too soon as far as he was concerned but the pay off was worth the wait even factoring in the "opportunities lost holding period" for performance.
Group 2 represents mainstream companies that he follows and where my many exit and entry points were executed with the utmost of precision.
My timing was not as far off since I seem to get in and out within days of the appropriate times to do so. More importantly, my "feel" for these stocks preceded the market and analyst mentality. In certain cases, my position was contrary to their analysis and my assessment was correct. (WDC 18-70 then bail, DELL 53-110, etal.)
The reason for this diatribe is not to boast but to set up Group 3. Group 3, according to him, represents VISION. He still has absolutely no idea why I would give a damn about these stocks, why anyone would want to invest in them, and can see no reason for recommending these securities. However, he admitted these were his exact feelings on Group 1 a few months back. He is not allowed to buy and sell stocks in companies he analyzes along with other restrictions but he will be following these group 3 stocks and believes I bought into them way too soon again. I can't disagree with him since none of these have performed admirably over the past 4-5 months and sustained those gains. However, CIG, REFR, ALYD, DY have spurted up and down for some nice roller coaster profits. (But none have taken off)
His final comment was that I have "beat the street" for QTR1-97 and will probably beat it again in QTR2 ending this month. He says he is a believer and will be researching these companies more intensely and following them closer on radar. His top picks are BYDS, CIG and REFR from this group with BYDS leaving both CIG and REFR in the dust. He has stated that NOW is the time to invest in BYDS, in his opinion, as the summer rolls in.
After he buttered me up on this, he wanted to know exit targets for ASYT, WFR, PLAB and CFMT, and what new stocks I have on my radar. I gave him his targets and then mentioned ESST, PAIR, CUBE, AGAI, CHPS, and MTSN. He politely told me I was looney tunes (but he did ask me to repeat the list).
So, in conclusion, I am comfortable in a XXL Tee-Shirt<GGGGG>
Andrew |
