you write then write about the process because any edge given away becomes lost in the efficient market theory or whatever that causes it’s value to dissipate.
I bet this could be a topic of good discussion. Efficient market theory. Chaos theory. I'm sure we all have theories.
I have a total lack of theory. :)
I don't think there are any absolutes except for greed and fear and that there are a wide range of tolerances for risk and stress out there.
Swing highs and lows are watched by many players, and there are either a lack of buyers or sellers at a high or low to overwhelm the other, or there aren't. It will always be this way.
Sure, some techniques become well know - i.e. shooting stars when the Nasdaq was ramping up - were frequently broken to the upside; prior to the tremendous rise, candlestick traders made good money off of such things. Simple example, I know.
Things do change. The critical thing for traders is to note when things no longer work and develop new rules (including staying away if that's the right answer!) to deal with the change.
Perhaps you will discover some relationship that pans out a certain way in a certain market, and perhaps it will be unique and give you an edge.
But I think the larger currents of greed and fear, swing highs and lows, will continue to drive people as they always have. Most of the "classic" stuff first discussed tens and in some cases hundreds of years ago still rings true, even though 'everyone' knows about them.
Bottom line I think that how people use the information is much more important. I've seen a good market tool (setup, trading rules, etc) in the hands of a good trader and a highly emotional, undisciplined trader, with predictable results.
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