A ''looooooooong'' fishing trip 2/8/01 12:33:56 PM
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''Well'',I guess you could say I went deep ''see'' fishing this time.{ggg}
For all the ''longs'' posting and lurking on this page I'd like to offer my congratulations, to you, for making the *ELH Forum, what it is today. I'll admit I miss some of the original posters, Taft and Steelguy come immediately to mind. Overall, this thread has assembled an awful lot of talented and knowledgible people, who offer their particular area of expertise and/or experience to ensure those of us, who believe in the ELH project, are provided with as much information as possible, to help in our decision making process. Others feed off the information and offer encouragement and support, while a very small number choose to post, just to ''stir the pot''. Thank-you all.
And now, I'd like to add my 2 cents worth. After spending the better part of a day visiting my 3 favorite ''fishing'' spots this is what we now know:
BKP#1- As of yesterday afternoon they had increased the flow from 9.6mmcuftpd to 11mmcuftpd and expect, if all goes well, to be up to 13mmcuftpd about the time we arrive for our perf party!!
It will however be several months before they reach the ultimate goal of 20mmcuftpd as they want to get to a good, stabilized production first and then see how the well behaves.
To date they have experienced no water and I'm told that is because at this point they have not reached the ''critical coning rate''.
Off I went, to another fishing buddy, who has considerable expertise, in this area. He offered the following explanation:
''Reservoir engineers calculate and comprehend something termed a "critical coning rate". If BKP#1 is produced at rates less than its critical coning rate, there should be NO water for a very long time. But, the problem is that it is a sensitive calculation and requires "estimates" of a few reservoir parameters that are still unknown for the well\reservoir. So, they necessarily make their "best guesses" and then see what happens. Any "garbage in" will mean "garbage out" of their calculation and probable early water production.''
Water IS EXPECTED at some point but we can still hope they guess well !! That would sure open a lot of eyes, don't you think ??? Unfortunately, the smart money bets ON the water showing up''
Besides the gas flowing yesterday, the partners are looking forward to another flow.......CASH.....which they will start receiving in about 6 weeks which is the typical delay on revenue, from production, we were advised from yet another fisherman.
BKP#2- dotcomthis and others, my best guess now is perfing will happen the 17th to 19th.
BKP#3- Many posters, on this thread, commented that Berkley's press release stated there would be up to 4 wells producing, by this summer, and wondered why not 5. BKP#3 IS NOT, in all likelyhood going to be ready to produce, by that time. It is entirely likely that the partnership will decide to drill deeper than the original 20,000TD.
WHY? BKP#3 is a ''RANK WILDCAT WELL''. This ''IS'' the Bellevue#1 well of the West Flank (blowout excluded we hope and pray). It is a 100% exploratory well, at this point.
There is no well control (other wells drilled that can provide data), the seismic is of little use at these depths, so everything the drilling crew are seeing, they are learning and making decisions for the first time. Every time they log they learn more about where they are, but what's ahead is still really just a hypothesis. They know, at this stage that they have found hydrocarbons in the system, hence the ''kicks'' lately, as reported by Cannacord. We've been told that in actual fact there have been NO KICKS but rather some indication of significant gas, but their origin is unclear.
The Oxford Dictionary says in part:
Explore: a) inquire into; investigate thoroughly. b) experiment; try
something new ...
This, the way I see it, would be the reason to drill deeper. If they've had some significant gas shows, while drilling in shale, that would be very exciting and most likely would indicate the presence of fracturing and hopefully porous sand below. I'm just speculating, based on what I've learned, from SI and SH, over the last 2+ years and welcome corrections or comments from those with actual knowledge in this area. Grayhairs? Salt'N'Peppa? Eboo? Rammone17? Others?
Bellevue 1-17R- The biggest problem facing the partners is rig availability? There is not a rig anywhere in the world, right now, that is not already being used (heard that on ROB-TV last night). The partners have some decision making regarding the rig at BKP#2. It was originally thought that it would be going to the Ivanhoe site,if memory serves me correctly, but my opinion is, at this stage they may revamp that and keep it for 1-17R, if it is big enough.
Then there is the rig, sitting quietly, across the hiway. Could it be available, while Trill looks for more partners. It must be costing them a fortune, to have the rig just sitting there? Perhaps it could be freed up for three months, and used at 1-17R. Speculation on my part only, but thought it was worth mentioning.
Done for today. Cheers.
As always,
GFTAELHI(longs of course)!
GHTAELHDRC(keep it going fellas)!
GHTAELHPC(nice job guys)! |
