Goldman's Cohen warns of recession talk
WASHINGTON, Feb 8 (Reuters) - Influential Wall Street
analyst Abby Joseph Cohen said on Thursday the economic
slowdown in the last few months was more pronounced than she
expected but doubted the nation was headed into a recession.
"The economy has slowed, that is true; much of it was
predictable," she said in a speech to the Association of
American Publishers.
"The slowdown, however, has been more pronounced than we
might have expected over the last two or three months" because
of three transitory factors -- high energy prices, cold weather
and the prolonged outcome of the presidential election, she
said.
Cohen, the chief U.S. strategist at investment bank Goldman
Sachs, said November to December of 2000 was the coldest period
in 105 years while the same period in 1999 was the warmest in
105 years.
"That does have an impact on whether we're willing to get
out, go shopping, test drive a new car."
Despite figures showing consumer confidence at its lowest
level in four years, Americans should not be worried about the
economy, she said.
"The time to have been worried was a year ago" when the
U.S. economy and corporate profits were growing at
unsustainable rates.
The real risk going forward is that people will take the
news of a slowing economy "and conjure up a story in which the
economy is going into a dark, deep recession. We don't think
so," Cohen said.
"But we do know it is important that consumer confidence
not erode further. We do not think that it will do so but we
all have to wait and see what happens."
((Peter Ramjug, Reuters SEC Desk, 202-898-8399))
REUTERS
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