Strange times in the markets.....
The market as seen by your neighborhood broker --- the guy who takes two-hour lunches and studies his golf game more closely than the market --- is one where Cisco is still seen as a bellwether for technology. These guys may listen to CNBC enough to realize the leader may not be the leader in all areas, but they don't quite know what that means. They desperately need a short course in fiber optics, including a map listing all the vendors and all the carriers and where they stand in the food chain, and until that happens, they'll flounder like so many shipwrecked passengers scurrying for life boats.
Eventually even my mother's broker up in Salem, Oregon, will know who's who on the food chain and when that happens, we'll all bank our profits and retire to Papeete.
Seriously, some times I want to scream, "Hey, SDL and JDS are adding capacity as fast as they can --- Victoria's gone from 50K to 175K sq. ft. . . 50K more just signed in Santa Clara. . . more in New Jersey, NY, UK . . ." But then I realize it's simply going to take time and instead of being frustrated, I might as well relax and enjoy the ride.
As for Cisco, aren't their two optics' plays, Cerent and Monterey? And isn't Cerent aimed at service providers and CLECs, and Monterey still in testing? If so, their pain has very little connection to what's happening in JDSU's market. In fact, it could be seen as validating the move from enterprise/small operators to major carriers.
As for market commentators, if they're going to be scouts a la Kit Carson, they'd better learn to tell rabbit spoor from buffalo.
Pat |
