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To: Knighty Tin who wrote (85400)	2/8/2001 5:42:17 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (1) of 86076

MB, i fully agree, Japan's high savings rate is its saving grace...and the lack of same is the big Achilles heel of the US economy, together with the huge private sector debt pyramid. interestingly, US banks look very strong at a superficial glance, however that doesn't take into account on how many soon-to-be-declared-duds loans they are sitting. last year ratios like loan-loss reserves vs. assets, equity capital vs. assets ,and equity capital vs. derivatives exposure all hit multi year lows, as they are wont to do at the peak of an extended boom. a few days ago i came across an article on "why what happened in Japan can't happen in the US". words like debt and savings rate were conspicuously absent, as they are absent whenever one of the FOMC clowns deigns to speak. imo the macro-economic catastrophe potential is extremely high in view of the many imbalances in the economy. and funny enough, that might be good for Japan. the reason is that while Japan's exporters are likely going to suffer a bit, capital will be more likely to return to Japan if the US economic and investment return outlook dims. interesting times directly ahead, in the Chinese curse sense. -g-

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