EMC How high can it go? Message Board

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Technology Stocks : EMC How high can it go?

EMC 29.05

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Sep 15 5:00 PM EST

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To: Stephen M. DeMoss who wrote (12081)	2/8/2001 6:03:51 PM
From: Gus	Read Replies (2) of 17183

NTAP reported a back-ended loaded quarter that missed revenue estimates, but beat earnings estimates. Domestic sales went down while international sales went up. NTAP also guided down analysts towards the lower end of their 10-15% sequential quarterly revenue growth projection. Of direct relevance to EMC is that NTAP shipped a surprisingly low 600 of their newest filers (F840) during the quarter, which brought their filer ASPs up by 10%. 15% of those flagship filers represented upgrades so about 510 units were directly comparable deployments. The F840 competes directly with EMC's IP4700. Each F840 contains only 1 Pentium III processor and regular memory while each IP4700 contains 4 Pentium III processors and Rambus memory. *EMC sold out 250 IP4700s during 4Q2000 when it was GA (general availability) for less than 30 days.* In January, EMC introduced the FC4700, which uses the same 4-processor platform as the IP4700 and which can be converted to the IP4700 with the simple change of software and the interface card -- FC4700 requires fibre channel while IP4700 requires gigabit ethernet. EMC also provided an upgrade path -- software and controller board change -- between the FC4500 installed base (30,000-40,000 units) and the FC4700, which practically assures it of a successful debut. EMC indicated that like the IP4700, they already had the FC4700 out in the field for 90 days before the product announcement. The key here is that EMC designed 4 processors into the IP4700, both for redundancy and performance. This allows them to introduce new features like software at a fairly rapid clip. It looks like EMC is on track towards displacing NTAP at top of the NAS market by the end of 2001. I suspect that for all practical purposes the NAS market will be combined with the SAN market in industry reports considering how fast the SAN/NAS hybridization is taking place. Celerra HighRoad and Celerra SE are unique SAN/NAS hybrid products and one can argue that at the hardware level, the FC4700 and IP4700 represent a new type of SAN/NAS hybridization.

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