Mqurice
<< Bumbling and stumbling is what Nokia has done on CDMA >>
They have done that.
<< every day that goes by with GSM ascendant is another day they enjoy huge GSM market share and profits. >>
Market share and profits build share holder value.
You need em in infra. You need em in handsets. If you can't make em. You get out. Like others have.
<< How many companies so readily admit to blundering? >>
In wireless ... besides Nokia? Besides Ericsson? Besides Motorola?
One California company I know does not. People do not buy their technology because they are either stupid or politically motivated, or competitors or politicians tell them misleading things. I heard it AGAIN today.
Nokia calls it "a learning". I sure learned something (about CDMA) when I listened to Larry Paulson describe "the learning", in a most candid and well documented manner.
I had been out of Nokia for well over 2 years ... and reinvested after listening to Larry describe the "learning" and their CDMA tactics and strategy four or 5 times of the well delivered and well constructed Capital Markets Day presentation in early December.
I have them on a tight leash.
In the Game I play I hold "Kings" loosely.
First milestone is the 5185i messaging functionality that will trigger 6185i shipments.
The second is additional penetration of US and Latin American carriers.
And then their is 1XTREME, but that is a ways away. I will watch that one VERY closely.
<< That day in the GSM sun is coming to an end. >>
I will watch that closely too ... but so far it is NOT trending that way. They are in a competitive business. They won't keep gaining market share forever. Its like semiconductors. You get it when you have momentum and your competition is in disarray and scrambling. You do top line growth and market share at the expense of margin if you have to.
<< They can do okay if they can develop excellent CDMA products but they are way behind. >>
They can in fact, do okay, if they can develop excellent CDMA products and they appear to be catching up.
Everybody is behind QUALCOMM on that. Nokia is, Phillips is, Samsung is. That is why QUALCOMM is my largest hold and why I am very long QUALCOMM.
It is difficult to assess where QUALCOMM is with W-CDMA and multi-mode and ZIF, but I will watch that closely as well. They appear to be behind others in this, but with their expertise, and their cash position, they can catch up.
<< There are many subscriber licensees for CDMA so Nokia won't enjoy 30% market share in CDMA any time soon. So CDMA is a pain for them. >>
No. GPRS is a pain for them. Nokia's focus is on 3G. It has been since January 1998. That's where their R&D dollars are being spent.
<< I guess they have read The Innovator's Dilemma [thanks for that Uncle Frank]. CDMA is what they call a disruptive technology [I think]. >>
You don't think it is. You KNOW it is. You probably knew it before me (11/94).
Of course they read it. And they read "Inside the Tornado" and "The Gorilla Game" and "Living on the Fault Line" and they are being consulted by Geoffrey Moore and Chasm group.
Pekka Ala-Pietela hasn't spent all that time in Mountain View, Silicon Valley, for nothing.
Irwin & Rich & Don can spell "Wireless Web" as well as you, but so can the TEAM of Pekka and Matti and Sari and Olli-Pekka and Jorma.
- Eriq - |
