Hi Bill,
Yes, an inverted head and shoulders is forming, but has not yet been confirmed. Confirmation would be completion of the shoulder (i.e., reversal to the upside right here), and trading above the neckline, which I put at 2900-3000. Most consider 8% above this point to be confirmation of the completed pattern. And this formation would have bullish implications, of course.
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I don't use a weekly chart with a MACD signal, and in fact I don't use MACD very much for buy signals, since it tends to be a later indicator. So, I don't feel qualified to comment on the MACD, but FWIW I would tend to agree with you that it appears that a crossover in the 12-26-9 MACD is imminent. Also, I should tell you that I never use this particular MACD setting, but instead prefer the 8-17-9, which I find more responsive for most stocks. But again, I do not use the MACD as a primary signal, so I'm probably not in a position to comment.
Here's the weekly NDX chart with the MACD:
stockcharts.com[l,a]wiclyymy[pb50!b200][vc60][iLa8,17,9]
On another technical note, you may be interested to note that on the 25 day Bollinger band chart, NDX has crossed the midline now, and is right in the reversal area.
As you may know, most often if the slope of the midline is horizontal, the stock or index will trade from one rail of the Bollinger band to the other and simply cross right through the midline. That is, the midline area is neither support nor resistance. However, if the midline is upsloping, then the midline will serve as support, and the stock will tend to trade from the upper rail, correct back to just below the midline, then reverse. The same thing is true if the midline is downsloping, only in this case the stock will bounce from the lower rail to just above the midline, where it will reverse and again trade towards the lower rail. This also means that when a stock which has traded consistently on one side of the Bollinger bands crosses all the way to the other rail, that this is significant, and indicates a change of trend (but for an uptrending or downtrending stock, this may not be a reversal per se, but may also just indicate the beginning of a sideways basing period).
The 25 day BB chart on NDX (daily) shows that it has been in a downtrend (no surprise there), but it has now crossed from the lower half, traded straight through the midline all the way to the other rail, and now has corrected back to the midline area. This alone suggests that NDX will now begin either a new uptrend, or a sideways basing period. Today's candle and the two preceding candles suggests reversal and a new uptrend is more likely.
207.61.23.99
So, the above charts and technicals would support a bullish outlook in the near term for the NDX index.
RE FCEL: What news about FCEL are you referring to?
TIA,
WS |
