EXPE - went short today at 16.75.
<< I think it will at least go back to the 20 day >>
You say your target is 13 - 13.50, but the 20-day MA is at 15 and rising quickly. It could hit 16 within a week, leaving me with only 75 cents profit! <ggg>
Looking at the one-year chart, I see two periods of sustained loitering around and below 10. They are roughly two months apart and the second one ended about a month ago. I see no reason that this stock can't revisit 10 over the next four weeks given my bearish outlook on the general market. Yes, I see some support at 13, but other than that, I see very little below 15 to hold it above 10, so a quick drop in the market could just hit my GTC which I just placed. I will try not to be greedy, but a $6.75 score would be sweet and I think I am safe as long as it doesn't make a quick break above 18. It is very likely to attempt such a break today, but I don't think it will close above 18. At best I see a double top forming and a temptation to reshort at 18. I would not be tempted, however, if the market was more bullish. If I am right about the overall market, then the risk-reward ratio is just right on this short.
Best regards - HB
P.S. WAVC - closed above its 20-day MA simple, and the 40-bar MA exponential of the 20-day MA simple on Thursday. Those two lines should provide support around 2.10 (cuz I drew 'em on my chart). Awaiting spike to 2.50, then plan to reload in this area.
P.P.S. HSAC - just noticed that my GTC buy at 1.625 came within 3.5 cents of being filled today, and the stock closed at 2.00 even (just above its 20-day MA) ! That would have been a nice 50% gain for one day, with more profits likely to follow. C'est la vie !!! : ' ) |
