Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services

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To: Second_Titan who wrote (86786)	2/9/2001 9:56:18 PM
From: Think4Yourself	Read Replies (2) of 95453

I'm embarassed to admit that I am not quite sure what you are asking. If you are asking what about the EEA report was disturbing, my recollection is that the prediction about future supplies was way out of whack with reality. Seems like a lot of the professionals (not on this thread) are expecting the increased drilling and inevitable production increases to increase supply, implicitly using today's demand. That is sheer ignorance IMHO, and of a magnitude that discredits the people making the claims. We all know there is a massive amount of NG driven power generation coming online this year, yet I am amazed by how many experts can't seem to grasp this concept. The numbers I have been seeing say more coming online this year than in 1999 and 2000 put together. This jives with the order timing for GE's Power Turbine division and their resulting production expansion. We aren't even seeing flush production now, and I agree with JIM_P's assertion last fall that we should be now. Perhaps I should clarify and say we aren't seeing flush production AFFECTING SUPPLY. We may indeed be seeing flush production now. Not sure exactly what is going on but am seeing nothing to suggest that the NG problem is going away in the next year. I agree completely with Matt Simmons regarding NG. The industry is on a treadmill speeding up with each new turbine, having to go faster and faster just to keep up. I have even read that NG well depletion rates are rising at an alarming pace. Bottom line is that I don't think many of the NG producer stocks are anywhere near their peak levels now, mainly because so few investors realize what is happening. High energy bills ARE bringing enlightenment.

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