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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 261.90

+0.4%

Dec 26 9:30 AM EST

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To: Gottfried who wrote (41986)	2/9/2001 11:11:26 PM
From: 16yearcycle	Read Replies (1) of 70976

Gottfried: stockcharts.com[l,a]waclyymy[pb30!b50!b200][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9] Remember, we concluded that you cover short positions at just above the 200 week(38.4), buy 2003 leaps and stock at under the 200 week if you can, and then really load up on stock on a decisive move up through the 30 week. We also felt back in the fall that the bottom would be somewhere between late March and June. We are set up for this really well. And the 30 week has come way down and will probably hit 50-52 before we move with emphasis through it. I will cover my short this week. If I am lucky, amat will collapse quickly to the low 30's, where I will cover and go long. Something is sure to go wrong. Nothing is this clean. One more idea. Look at this chart: stockcharts.com[w,a]waclyymy[df][pb20!b30!b200][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9] What if we change the sell criteria to selling when the 20 week and 30 week cross over, instead of when amat drops through the 30 week on large volume? It might give a clearer signal. It seems to have worked in 1997 too, before allo the damage was done.(it was a quick fall in 1997. But it would have produced a sell in the low 40's and amat took a year to get back to those levels and went to 21 on the way.)I am worried that there are too many headfakes on these breaks of the moving averages.

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