Russian President Vladimir Putin traveled to Austria this week
with two items on his agenda - reinforcing Russia's economic
relations with Austria and persuading Austria to retain its
neutral status. Central to both missions was a Russian offer to
trade MiG-29 jet fighters to Austria in exchange for relief of
Russian debt to Vienna. The offer was rejected, dealing a serious
setback to Russia's strategy for relations with Europe. Domestic
political pressure, time and budgetary constraints, however,
could force Austria to reconsider Russia's offer, in turn,
threatening NATO expansion and cohesion.
Analysis
Russian President Vladimir Putin concluded the working portion of
his visit to Austria on Feb. 9, having almost completely failed
to achieve his two major objectives. First, Putin was attempting
to reinforce economic ties between Russia and Austria. Second,
Putin sought to persuade Austrian leaders to retain the country's
neutral status and refrain from NATO membership. Serving both
initiatives was a Russian proposal to offer MiG-29 fighter jets
as partial payment of Russia's $2.84 billion debt to Vienna, an
offer that, if accepted, would have hampered any future Austrian
accession to NATO.
But the MiG offer was shot down before Putin's arrival, the
victim of aggressive opposition lobbying from the United States,
Britain and Sweden. In the end, Putin was forced to reaffirm
publicly that Russia would fulfill its international debt
obligations and to acknowledge that Austria's neutrality and
membership in international organizations were matters for
Austria to decide. Chastened, Putin left Vienna with only a
handful of insubstantial economic cooperation agreements.
While strategically and economically painful, Russia's setback on
the MiG proposal is not yet terminal. The Russian jets-for-debt
proposal and competing European and U.S. offers will still face
intense debate within the Austrian populace and parliament. The
majority of Austrians do not share their government's commitment
to eventual NATO membership, and budgetary and political concerns
could, in the end, make Russia's offer too attractive to refuse.
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