Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis

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To: Chris who started this subject	2/10/2001 11:41:01 AM
From: hobo	of 52237

Thanks Chris... I agree with you on all counts in re: the moderation feature. _____________________________ in response to Doug: Message 15330667 The connection between interest rates and Tech stocks is far less transparent than its connection with the old economy. There is a phase delay far longer and more like 4-6 mths from the start of a recession/soft landing. The date for the start of the so called recession is also unclear due to the dot.com bust. Some claim the recession began in late Oct ; some say Dec. What most can agree is that the TECH stocks should reach bottom half way between the recession/soft landing period. which normally is not less than 8 mths. It is likely that the market should bottom 4 mths from Dec which brings it into April , the traditional second worst period for stocks. i understand your points, and although I have been a believer that the market will go sideways with a downward bias as the main trend, given the energy crisis, overvaluation of certain stocks and overall "complacent" sentiment, this will not be a straight line event. particularly with the Fed being friendly and on top of that AG "endorsing (or almost), a tax cut. my point was that we could have violent reactions to the upside from time to time. Only this week I was "fooled" (by my own self --no less-), into believing that we were going to have such a reaction. For now I am in pain -gg- having sold some puts. Perhaps going into expiration next week my ill-timed projection may, after all, realize. if not, well pain pills will be taken next week. premiums received will help in clearing and re-loading more carefully -GG-

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