Jerome,
I don't want to be misunderstood and Gottfried and I are almost exactly in synch...he is just more organized, diligent, patient, understandable, and intelligent than I.
Heck we already hit 34 once didn't we? It won't be hard to revisit it. I don't think whether it is 28, 32, 34 or 38 or even 42 should worry anyone. The concern has to be whether we go down and stay down for a year, and threaten to collapse into the teens.This could only happen in the event of a severe recession; I don't think the neurosis of the average investor can cause that much of a disaster.
So: I expect 38, and I will cover there. I will buy 2003 30 leaps at any sign of price stability after I cover. And I will start accumulating stock then. When we hit the 30 week average, I will buy a very large position. I have been posting this since November. Gottfried and I came up with these buy, sell, and short points based on ta around that time. Why ta? Well, it just hasn't worked great to buy amat on fundamentals. Fundamentals are actually always good for amat. It's public sentiment that hammers and grows the stock.
So, as I hope you can see, I think we are in buy territory and it isn't time to be too worried unless you think we are going to have a real economic meltdown(60% on the nas just wasn't enough;>(). When we hit 120 in a couple years, we should get worried again. |
