Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services

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To: BigBull who wrote (86801)	2/10/2001 2:16:17 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) of 95453

WHO LET DA' DOGS (and Big Bull) OUT !?!?!?!?!?!? ... get 'em Bullsky ~ I hear you loud & clear. This is exactly why I kept praying that we could sneak in the OSX rally to new highs before Q1 Tech Reporting starts hitting in April - along with other Economic news; because while "As GM (Ford & Chrysler) goes - so goes America" is no longer as true as it once was... it is still true to a great degree. We can not have a manufacturing recession and new-paradign walk our away around it in the equity markets, or in the economy. Remember that post I linked showing how many major US Banks now have derivative exposure; primarially in short gold, short euro & long US dollar/equity plays; that are exponential multiples of their own capitalizations ? Remember Greenspan nearly in a panic months ago to rush new "bank failure" reform thru congress ? Remember his warning about their not being another LTCM type of bailout available ? Remember his warning about "not being too big - to fail ? Remember Buffets refusal to participate in this new tech paradigm & his monumental accumulation of physical silver ? Or, how about the exodus of Julian Robertson, Soros, Shopkorn, Druckenmiller and of late - youngsters like Vinnik & James Cramer ? - coincidence that they just walked away at the top ?... think they just may choose to sit out a Nikkei type of slide ? Think they saw a Nikkei type of slide ? Remember Bill Seidman's warning about there now being "TWICE" as many banks facing collapse & failure today as they did during the prior S&L crisis if we have an economic collapse, or a Commercial Real Estate crisis ? - wonder if Greenspan's bank failure rush has anything to do with this as well, or if the California Tech slowdown, or the Utility crisis just might lead to a little Commercial Real Estate Collapse - considering those huge prices Silicon Valley Co's were standing in line to pay then; versus now; when no one wants to build a Tech Plant in California today - given the energy costs & crisis ? Hmmmmmmm ? Remember after the inital 1929 crash; there was a nice rally bounce - before the ultimate bottom was put in... I still say; the DOW had to rollover & we have to see cash & not sector rotation become the option; before we truly have a market bottom. The only thing that garners my curiosity for a bullish bounce in tech here - is this recent surge in M3 Money Supply is exactly what preceeded the last NASDQ spike ...I think perhaps this time; that money is staying, or rotating into the DOW stocks - explaining its strength; or even perhaps it is just maintaining equilibrium in money flows as perhaps the foreign repatriation of funds from US markets is stronger than we think ... Anyway; untill we see clear & unequivocal signs that the US is pulling out of a recession versus plunging deeper into one and that tech has recovered; this is trading territory and not a real positive risk vs reward scenario... it may prove very smart to sit much of the next few months in cash & in defensive hedges such as gold/silver...and to not fail to take profits into all further strength here in Oils and to stop out on the first sign of rollover. Bullsky - welcome back & keep the commentary coming... I'd love to sell all my Oils on a move to 150-155 here prior to Aprils Q1 tech reporting and be able to rotate to a near full portfolio weighting in Gold/Silvers around XAU 40...and then see a NAZ 1650-1850 final capitulation by summers end... then; arguably we will have an investable bottom and not just a tradeable one... Ohhh and PS: Are all the "Nat Gas stocks will go straight to Blue Sky Heaven" afficianado's aware that there is no - NGOPEC ? Rig count is exponentially higher this year than last; larger offshore Gas Projects will get attention; there is much supply in the "curve" coming online from the earlier spike in Drilling and slowing supply & conservation and fuel switching will lower demand. Again - someone, anyone show me ANY demand statiistics that show that this new digital & broadband economy is creating some type of demand curve spike - it doesn't exist... just a normal economic expansion growth curve that can & will be met exists imo... Nat Gas may return to a $2/$3 environment much, much more quickly than anyone thinks and Oil if OPEC really has learned its lesson - may make Crude Oil the real story; but demand and not supply is the key there as well and the USA is the dog that wags the global economic - demand tail... so I'd be heeding any signs of the ole' dog tiring here...

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