Agree, Greg. NAZ should bounce from the current level based on my simplified TA model:
NAZ Jan low 2252, hi 2892 ==> 640 range * 0.68 pull back ==> 2457 as the pullback bottom.
NAZ is 23 pts above 2457 as of Friday's close.
And all the NAZ old generals like CSCO, SUNW, NTAP are making new lows, and ORCL is close to making one. INTC is not far from its 52wk lows. Better bounce now, or NAZ 1900 as u suggest. Wow, even GLW (new low) and JDSU are weak.
I rechecked Top 50 market cap NAZ and SP100 stocks on IBD. Only 3 NAZ stocks (excluding those Japanese stocks ending in Y) has ESP + RS > 170, CHKP 188, CMVT 173, FITB 172. Among SP100, HI 173, FITB 172, WM 178, CAH 180, FRE 175, TYC 172, UTX 171, ALL 178. I'll try to find couple good ones among the 9 stocks (FITB is in both SP100 and NAZ50)
Looks to me we might have to switch to SP100 to find some good stocks to hold.
NAZ stocks should be buy the dips, sell and short the rally until March 20 FED meething.
If CHKP holds 115-120 area next week, it would form a nice weekly chart with rising lows and resistance @ ~160s.
Regional banks are among the best IBD charts. Lower interest rates ==> refianacing might be the good reason to buy and hold them for the next 6+ months??? Any sector HOLDER or funds for the whole group? I'm new to bank stocks, so I think I'll pick the sector instead of individual banks.
My best idea for small cap is MWAV. A pull back near 9.25 to 10 should be a good for starting a core position. I'm expecting MWAV to be a $20 by the end of 2001 based on my estimates of $1.5-$2.0 earning. Even if P/S = 1, with conservative sale target of 100 mils in 2001, MWAV will reach market cap north of 100 mil in 2001 (current cap is 52 mil). |
